2025 Copa Sudamericana Final: Expectations, Predictions, and Where to Watch!

Atlético-MG and Lanús will play the 2025 Copa Sudamericana Final this Saturday, November 22, at 5:00 p.m. The showdown at the legendary Defensores del Chaco Stadium, in Asunción, marks the reunion of the two teams after 11 years in a match that promises high emotions — and, of course, Responsible Sports Betting.

For Atlético-MG, this is not only a chance to win their first-ever Sudamericana title in their debut final, but also an opportunity to improve the performance of Brazilian clubs in the tournament’s decider: this will be the 14th time a Brazilian club reaches the final, with only five titles so far. Lanús, on the other hand, reach their third Sudamericana final and chase a second championship — which would further extend Argentina’s lead in the all-time winners list, as the country currently holds 10 titles.

Both teams arrive in Paraguay’s capital with contrasting narratives: the Argentines carry the reputation of being a clutch, knockout-savvy team, while the Brazilians come from a season filled with ups and downs. Their shared goal is not just the trophy, but also the spot in next year’s Copa Libertadores.

And if you’re counting the minutes for the third Sudamericana final held in Paraguay, we’ve got great news: we’ve gathered the main data and stats to help you understand what to expect from the match, where to watch it, and how to plan your bets — remembering that no Odds mentioned here are guarantees or promises of victory; they only reflect trends in favoritism.

How Does Atlético-MG Arrive for the 2025 Copa Sudamericana Final?

Regardless of what happens at Defensores del Chaco, this is already Atlético-MG’s best Sudamericana campaign ever — surpassing the 2019 edition, when they were eliminated by Colón on penalties in the Semifinals. The current Copa Libertadores runner-up, Atlético-MG play the tournament for the tenth time and aim to end their continental title drought since the 2014 Recopa Sudamericana — also against Lanús.

Sudamericana Campaign

Starting their 2025 Sudamericana journey in the Group Stage, the Brazilian team finished second in Group H. In six matches, they collected nine points — just one behind Cienciano — with two wins, three draws, and one loss.

Because of that, Atlético-MG had to play the playoff round to reach the Round of 16 — already under a new coach, as Cuca was replaced by Jorge Sampaoli. The opponent was Atlético Bucaramanga, and it was a tough matchup: each team won 1–0 away from home, but the Brazilians prevailed on penalties, winning 3–1.

In the Round of 16, they faced Godoy Cruz and won both legs: 2–1 at Arena MRV and 1–0 at the Malvinas Argentinas Stadium. The Quarterfinals then put Bolívar — and the feared high altitude — in their path. Atlético gave up a 2–0 lead to draw 2–2 in La Paz, but sealed a 1–0 win in Belo Horizonte.

To finish, the Semifinals paired them with Independiente del Valle. Starting the duel in Ecuador, Atlético snatched a late 1–1 draw in a heated match. Back at Arena MRV, the team from Minas Gerais won 3–1 and booked their trip to Asunción.

Playing Style

Under Jorge Sampaoli, Atlético-MG rely on an aggressive approach with the ball and high intensity without it. The team usually presses high, trying to force mistakes in the opponent’s buildup. In possession, the backline builds short, the midfielders drop closer to create numerical superiority, and the full-backs provide width. When they find space, the team accelerates through diagonal runs and penetrations, effectively exploring balls in behind the defensive line.

Performance in the Brazilian Championship

Talking about their domestic season, Atlético-MG began the year by winning their 50th Campeonato Mineiro title — beating América-MG 4–1 on aggregate. The trophy extended the club’s regional dominance, now holding 12 more titles than their biggest rival, Cruzeiro.

In the Copa do Brasil, Atlético-MG had some strong moments, such as the penalty shootout win over Flamengo in the Round of 16. But being eliminated by Cruzeiro in the Quarterfinals left a bitter taste: two losses by 2–0.

In the Brazilian Championship, the Belo Horizonte side has sought consistency. After a disappointing start under Cuca, the arrival of Jorge Sampaoli improved performances — with five wins, five draws, and four losses under the Argentine.

Practically safe from relegation worries, the team sit 10th with 44 points, 11 wins, 11 draws, and 12 losses. They have scored 37 goals and conceded 39.

Key Players in the Copa Sudamericana

Despite some inconsistency this season, striker Hulk remains Atlético-MG’s biggest offensive leader. The forward scored four goals (two from penalties) and provided two assists in the competition, using his experience to guide the team.

Only midfielder Gustavo Scarpa has more goal involvements for Atlético-MG, with four assists and one goal — playing also as a right wing-back. Next comes winger Bernard, with three goals and a renewed spark in his game, followed by winger Dudu, with one goal and two assists.

In defense, goalkeeper Everson stands out the most: 2.1 saves per match, 71% defensive efficiency, and five clean sheets. Left-back Guilherme Arana excels in supporting the attack with one goal and one assist, while center-back Vitor Hugo has solidified his place in the starting XI with 5.9 clearances per match and strong aerial presence.

Unavailable Players

Sampaoli will not have a full squad in Asunción. The team’s main defensive leader, center-back Lyanco, suffered a ruptured Achilles tendon and will be sidelined for a long period. On the right side, winger Júnior Santos is still recovering from a hip flexor issue, while midfielder Tomás Cuello remains out due to torn ankle ligaments.

Expected Lineup

Sampaoli is expected to use a three-center-back system with Gustavo Scarpa operating as the right wing-back. Thus, Atlético-MG’s 3-5-3 formation should include the following players:

Everson; Saravia, Junior Alonso, and Vitor Hugo; Gustavo Scarpa, Alexander, Igor Gomes, and Guilherme Arana; Bernard, Hulk, and Dudu.

How Does Lanús Arrive for the 2025 Copa Sudamericana Final?

Champion of the 2013 Copa Sudamericana after defeating Ponte Preta 3–1 on aggregate, Lanús return to the tournament’s final for the first time in five years — since their 3–0 loss to Defensa y Justicia in 2020. The Granate travel to Paraguay confident after a strong season and dreaming of beating Atlético-MG for the first time.

Sudamericana Campaign

Lanús began their campaign in the Group Stage and topped Group G with 12 points from three wins and three draws — finishing ahead of Vasco da Gama, Melgar, and Puerto Cabello. They scored nine goals and conceded only none during this unbeaten start, which sent the Argentines directly into the Round of 16.

In the knockout stage, the Granate opened with a tough matchup against Central Córdoba: they lost the first leg 1–0 but won by the same score at home and advanced after winning the penalty shootout 4–2.

Next came Fluminense, the favorites after reaching the Club World Cup semifinals. After a 1–0 win at the Néstor Díaz Pérez Stadium, a 1–1 draw at the Maracanã sealed their spot in the semifinals.

To finish, the opponent was Universidad de Chile in an exciting clash. Lanús drew 2–2 at the Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos in Santiago and advanced with a hard-fought 1–0 win at home.

Playing Style

Lanús rely on an organized and pragmatic style, prioritizing defensive solidity and compact lines. The team generally defends in a mid-to-low block, closing the central channels and reducing the space between defense and midfield before accelerating in quick transitions. Direct counterattacks, long switches, and stretched balls to the forwards are frequent weapons, especially in knockout matches such as this final against Atlético-MG.

Domestic Performance

Lanús are having a solid season not only in the Sudamericana. Led by head coach Mauricio Pellegrino, the team finished the Argentine Championship Apertura in 7th place in Group B. This position secured a spot in the Round of 16, where they faced Boca Juniors and were eliminated on penalties after a scoreless draw.

Their Copa Argentina campaign was more positive, as they knocked out teams like Vélez Sarsfield and Huracán — both enjoying strong seasons. However, they were eliminated by Argentinos Juniors 1–0 in the Quarterfinals.

In the Clausura, though, Lanús had a strong campaign that showcased the team’s quality: they finished second in Group B with 30 points, with nine wins, three draws, and four losses. Their Round of 16 opponent will be Tigre on November 26 — who could face them either motivated by a title or recovering from the final.

Key Players in the Copa Sudamericana

When talking about Lanús in the Sudamericana, it’s hard not to mention Marcelino Moreno: the Argentine midfielder leads the team in goal involvements with three goals and three assists. Close behind are the two main offensive threats: left winger Dylan Aquino and right winger Eduardo Salvio, each with four goal involvements.

In defense, veteran centre-back Carlos Izquierdoz stands out at 37 years old, with seven clean sheets in the tournament. He is supported by left-back Sasha Marcich, who also contributes offensively with two assists.

To complete the picture, goalkeeper Nahuel Losada is one of the team’s biggest standouts. At 32 years old, he has played every match for Lanús in the Sudamericana and averages 2.3 saves per game — with 78% efficiency.

Unavailable Players

Pellegrino arrives at the final with some absences and challenges in defining the starting lineup. The coach will not have midfielder Raúl Loaiza, still recovering from a torn ACL, or midfielder Felipe Peña Biafore, sidelined with a shoulder injury. Among the doubtful players, the one with the best chance of playing is right-back Armando Méndez, who is dealing with last-minute gastric issues.

Expected Lineup

Pellegrino is expected to maintain the 4-2-3-1 system that has worked well for Lanús this season. Therefore, the likely lineup is:

Losada; Pérez, Canale, Izquierdoz, and Marcich; Cardozo and Carrera; Medina, Moreno, and Salvio; Castillo.

Lanús vs. Atlético-MG’s Stats Comparison

For those looking for even more data to compare the teams, we checked the Lanús vs. Atlético-MG statistical matchup from Sofascore to provide a deeper analysis. Check it out:

Defensive Stats

Looking at the defensive sector, Lanús have a clear advantage. Pellegrino’s team average 0.7 goals conceded per match, compared to 0.9 for the Brazilians — with seven clean sheets, ahead of Atlético-MG’s five.

Regarding interceptions, the Granate average 11 per match, compared to Atlético’s 8.2. They also record 19.8 tackles per game — ahead of the Brazilians’ 15.6 — and 26.3 clearances per match, higher than Atlético’s 21.6.

Additionally, the Argentines have conceded only two penalty goals in the tournament, while the Brazilians have allowed twice as many. Goalkeeping numbers are balanced: Losada averages 2.3 saves per match, while Everson averages 2.1.

Passing Stats

When it comes to playing style, the numbers show that Atlético-MG like to keep the ball: they average 54% possession in the tournament, compared to Lanús’ 43.5%.

Atlético-MG also have a higher pass accuracy — 82.8%, with around 354.8 passes per game — compared to Lanús’ 76% and 264.3 passes per match.

Another interesting stat: long balls. The Brazilians complete an average of 21.6 per match (58.9%), while the Argentines average 16.9 with a 44.6% success rate.

Offensive Stats

Offensively, Atlético-MG hold the advantage with 22 goals scored and an average of 1.6 per match, while Lanús have 15 goals and an average of 1.3 — remembering that the Brazilians played two more matches due to the playoff round.

Atlético-MG also lead in two more attacking metrics: more shots on target per match (4.9 vs. 3.9) and more big chances created (2.8 vs. 1.6 for the Argentines).

However, the Brazilians lead in an undesirable stat: big chances missed. They average 1.5 per match, compared to Lanús’ 1.0.

To finish, the Belo Horizonte side are caught offside more often: an average of 2.4 per match, compared to Lanús’ 1.2.

Fouls and Cards

Disciplinary numbers show that Lanús commit more fouls per match: they average 13.9, more than Atlético-MG’s 12.7. However, Atlético-MG receive more yellow cards: 3.1 per match, ahead of Lanús’ 2.8. Red cards are even — each team has had just one player sent off during the campaign.

Lanús and Atlético-MG’s Head-to-Head Record

If past results are any indication, the Brazilian side will take the field with an advantage: Atlético-MG has never lost to Lanús in four matches — all of them in finals. There are three wins and one draw, with ten goals scored and five conceded.

In the 1997 CONMEBOL Cup, Galo defeated the Granate 4–1 at the Néstor Díaz Pérez Stadium and opened up a strong advantage in the race for the title. At the Mineirão, a 1–1 draw secured the continental trophy for coach Emerson Leão’s team.

In the 2014 Recopa Sudamericana, the teams met again in a tough battle. Atlético won 1–0 in Argentina, but the match on Brazilian soil was difficult: Lanús scored in stoppage time and forced extra time — where the Libertadores champions defeated the Sudamericana winners 4–3.

Since then, the teams have not faced each other. Only forward Lautaro Acosta was on the pitch in that last match; now 37 years old, the player who scored the goal that sent the match to extra time has mostly come off the bench and currently has one goal in 12 appearances this season.

Predictions for the 2025 Copa Sudamericana Final

Ready to plan your bets? We took a look at the 2025 Copa Sudamericana Final page at Blaze to see what other bettors expect from the match — remembering that odds change over time, so they may be slightly different when you check them.

Atlético-MG is a slight favorite to win in regular time, with odds of 2.44. Lanús starts with 3.20 to win, while a draw is priced at 2.92 — which would send the decision to a penalty shootout. This Brazilian advantage continues in the “tournament winner” markets: Atlético sits at 1.7 against 2.1 for the Argentinians.

Where to Watch the 2025 Copa Sudamericana Final

The final will be broadcast live on ESPN (cable TV), Disney+ (streaming), and also on free-to-air TV via SBT.

Bet on the 2025 Copa Sudamericana Final at Blaze!

We’re close to discovering which team will write its name in the Copa Sudamericana Finals’ history in glorious fashion. Will Lanús become a two-time champion, or will Atlético-MG become the fifth Brazilian team to win the Sudamericana? Either way, you can place your bets on the match because Brazil’s MESP Ordinance No. 125/2024 allows wagering on CONMEBOL tournaments.

But before heading to Paraguay’s capital or to the 2025 Copa Sudamericana Final page to place your bets, remember the importance of understanding all the risks involved. Betting is not a source of income or an investment, and if you wager without awareness and responsibility, it may result in losses — causing serious impacts on mental and financial health.

That’s why you should study data, statistics, and rules before placing any bet. If you want to better understand how markets, probabilities, and best practices work, check out our Sports Betting Encyclopedia — but keep in mind that you should never use money you can’t afford to lose.

Ready to enjoy every minute of the final in Asunción responsibly? Bet on the 2025 Copa Sudamericana Final at Blaze — and good luck!